Exchange Rate Calculator

The exchange rate between the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the South African Rand (ZAR) has exhibited notable fluctuations over the past few months. This report delves into the recent trends, technical indicators, and potential factors influencing the CHF/ZAR currency pair.

Recent Exchange Rate Trends

Between August 2024 and January 2025, the CHF/ZAR exchange rate experienced significant volatility. In early August 2024, the rate was approximately 21.95 ZAR per CHF. By mid-November 2024, it had declined to around 19.26 ZAR per CHF. Subsequently, the rate rebounded, reaching approximately 20.86 ZAR per CHF by early January 2025. As of late March 2025, the exchange rate stabilized around 20.68 ZAR per CHF.

Technical Analysis

As of March 27, 2025, technical indicators for the CHF/ZAR pair present a mixed outlook:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI 14): 48.412 (Neutral)
• Stochastic Oscillator (9,6): 32.834 (Sell)
• Stochastic RSI (14): 29.437 (Sell)
• MACD (12,26): 0.005 (Buy)
• Average Directional Index (ADX 14): 25.149 (Sell)
• Williams %R: -65.14 (Sell)
• Commodity Channel Index (CCI 14): -12.3516 (Neutral)
• Ultimate Oscillator: 58.243 (Buy)

Moving averages also indicate a bearish trend:

• MA5: 20.6784 (Simple), 20.6734 (Exponential) – Sell
• MA10: 20.6819 (Simple), 20.6720 (Exponential) – Sell
• MA20: 20.6620 (Simple), 20.6690 (Exponential) – Sell
• MA50: 20.6630 (Simple), 20.6597 (Exponential) – Sell
• MA100: 20.6484 (Simple), 20.6521 (Exponential) – Buy
• MA200: 20.6341 (Simple), 20.6514 (Exponential) – Buy

These indicators suggest a cautious approach, with short-term signals leaning towards selling, while longer-term averages indicate potential buying opportunities.

Factors Influencing the CHF/ZAR Exchange Rate

Several factors have contributed to the observed fluctuations in the CHF/ZAR exchange rate:

1. Economic Performance:

   • Switzerland: The Swiss economy has remained relatively stable, with consistent GDP growth and low unemployment rates. The Swiss National Bank's monetary policies have aimed to maintain price stability, influencing the strength of the CHF.
   • South Africa: South Africa has faced economic challenges, including slow GDP growth, high unemployment, and fiscal deficits. These issues have exerted downward pressure on the ZAR.

2. Interest Rate Differentials:

   • Differences in interest rates between Switzerland and South Africa affect investor behavior. Higher interest rates in South Africa may attract investors seeking better returns, potentially strengthening the ZAR. Conversely, lower rates in Switzerland can lead to a weaker CHF.

3. Political Stability:

   • Switzerland: Known for its political neutrality and stability, Switzerland's political environment supports a strong CHF.
   • South Africa: Political uncertainties, policy changes, and governance issues can lead to investor apprehension, impacting the ZAR's value.

4. Global Market Sentiment:

   • As a safe-haven currency, the CHF often appreciates during global economic uncertainties. Conversely, the ZAR, being a commodity-linked currency, is susceptible to global commodity price fluctuations and risk sentiment.

Conclusion

The CHF/ZAR exchange rate has demonstrated considerable volatility over the past few months, influenced by economic performance, interest rate differentials, political stability, and global market sentiment. Technical indicators as of late March 2025 suggest a cautious approach, with mixed signals from various metrics. Investors should closely monitor these factors and conduct thorough analyses before making decisions related to this currency pair.