Exchange Rate Calculator

The exchange rate between the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and the Australian Dollar (AUD) has experienced notable fluctuations over the past few months, influenced by various economic and geopolitical factors. This report provides an analysis of the recent trends, underlying causes, and future projections for the CNY/AUD exchange rate.

Recent Trends in CNY/AUD Exchange Rate

In the first half of 2025, the CNY/AUD exchange rate exhibited significant volatility. On April 8, 2025, the rate peaked at 0.2288 AUD per CNY, marking the highest point in the six-month period. Conversely, the lowest rate was recorded on May 6, 2025, at 0.2104 AUD per CNY. The average exchange rate during this timeframe was approximately 0.2174 AUD per CNY. (exchange-rates.org)

Factors Influencing the Exchange Rate

Several key factors have contributed to the observed fluctuations in the CNY/AUD exchange rate:

1. China's Currency Policy Considerations: In December 2024, reports emerged that China was contemplating allowing the yuan to depreciate in 2025 to counteract potential higher trade tariffs from a second Trump presidency. This news led to a decline in the yuan and other China-sensitive currencies, including the Australian dollar, which touched a one-year low at that time. (reuters.com)

2. Economic Indicators: Economic performance indicators such as GDP growth, inflation rates, and trade balances in both China and Australia have played a role in influencing the exchange rate. For instance, stronger economic data from Australia can bolster the AUD, while signs of economic slowdown in China may weaken the CNY.

3. Commodity Prices: Australia's economy is heavily reliant on commodity exports, particularly to China. Fluctuations in commodity prices, especially iron ore and coal, can impact the AUD's strength relative to the CNY.

4. Monetary Policies: Decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) regarding interest rates and monetary policy can influence investor sentiment and capital flows, thereby affecting the exchange rate.

Future Projections

Looking ahead, various forecasts provide insights into the potential trajectory of the CNY/AUD exchange rate:

• Short-Term Forecasts: Analysts predict that the CNY/AUD exchange rate will reach 0.2137 by September 2025, 0.2088 by December 2025, and 0.2070 by March 2026. (exchangerates.org.uk)

• Monthly Projections: For the remainder of 2025, the exchange rate is expected to average around 0.2163 AUD per CNY in June, with slight fluctuations in the following months. By December 2025, the average rate is projected to be approximately 0.2166 AUD per CNY. (midforex.com)

• Long-Term Outlook: By the end of 2026, the exchange rate is forecasted to average around 0.2190 AUD per CNY, indicating a gradual strengthening of the CNY relative to the AUD over the next two years. (midforex.com)

Conclusion

The CNY/AUD exchange rate has been subject to considerable volatility in recent months, influenced by China's currency policy considerations, economic indicators, commodity prices, and monetary policies. While short-term forecasts suggest a slight depreciation of the CNY against the AUD, long-term projections indicate a gradual strengthening of the yuan. Stakeholders should remain vigilant to ongoing economic developments and policy decisions in both China and Australia, as these will continue to play pivotal roles in shaping the exchange rate dynamics between the two currencies.