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The exchange rate between the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and the Mexican Peso (MXN) has experienced notable fluctuations over the past few years. This report provides an analysis of the CNY/MXN exchange rate trends, focusing on the period from 2022 to mid-2025, and explores the factors influencing these movements.

Exchange Rate Trends from 2022 to Mid-2025

2022: A Year of Decline

In 2022, the CNY/MXN exchange rate exhibited a downward trend. At the beginning of the year, 1 CNY was equivalent to approximately 3.27 MXN. By the end of March, the rate had decreased to around 3.13 MXN per CNY. This decline continued throughout the year, with the exchange rate reaching approximately 2.72 MXN per CNY by October 31, 2022. (exchangerates.org.uk)

2023: Continued Depreciation

The depreciation of the CNY against the MXN persisted into 2023. In June 2023, the exchange rate was around 2.36 MXN per CNY. By October 2023, it had further declined to approximately 2.47 MXN per CNY. (freecurrencyrates.com)

2024: A Reversal of Trends

In 2024, the CNY/MXN exchange rate began to appreciate. The average exchange rate for the year was 2.5522 MXN per CNY, with the highest rate reaching 2.8596 MXN on December 31, 2024, and the lowest at 2.2579 MXN on April 8, 2024. (exchange-rates.org)

2025: Fluctuations and Recent Trends

In the first half of 2025, the exchange rate experienced fluctuations. The highest rate recorded was 2.9463 MXN per CNY on February 2, 2025, while the lowest was 2.6246 MXN per CNY on June 27, 2025. As of June 28, 2025, the exchange rate stood at 2.620 MXN per CNY. (exchangerates.org.uk, wise.com)

Factors Influencing the CNY/MXN Exchange Rate

Several factors have contributed to the fluctuations in the CNY/MXN exchange rate over the past few years:

1. Economic Performance and Monetary Policies

• China: China's economic growth rates, trade balances, and monetary policies significantly impact the value of the CNY. For instance, periods of economic slowdown or monetary easing can lead to a weaker yuan.

• Mexico: Similarly, Mexico's economic indicators, such as GDP growth, inflation rates, and central bank policies, influence the MXN's strength. Tightening monetary policies or robust economic performance can strengthen the peso.

1. Global Economic Conditions

Global events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions, have affected investor sentiment and currency valuations. Emerging market currencies like the MXN often experience volatility in response to global economic uncertainties.

1. Trade Relations

The trade dynamics between China and Mexico, including trade balances and agreements, can influence the exchange rate. An increase in exports from China to Mexico, for example, could lead to a higher demand for CNY, affecting the exchange rate.

1. Interest Rate Differentials

Differences in interest rates set by the People's Bank of China and the Bank of Mexico can lead to capital flows that impact the exchange rate. Higher interest rates in Mexico compared to China may attract investors seeking better returns, strengthening the MXN against the CNY.

Conclusion

The CNY/MXN exchange rate has undergone significant changes from 2022 to mid-2025, influenced by a complex interplay of economic performance, monetary policies, global economic conditions, trade relations, and interest rate differentials. Understanding these factors is crucial for businesses and investors engaged in activities involving both currencies. Continuous monitoring of economic indicators and policy decisions in both countries will provide better insights into future exchange rate movements.