Exchange Rate Calculator

The exchange rate between the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and the New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) is a crucial indicator of the economic relationship between China and Taiwan. Over the past six months, this rate has exhibited notable fluctuations, influenced by various economic and geopolitical factors. This report provides an analysis of the recent trends, underlying causes, and potential future movements of the CNY/TWD exchange rate.

Recent Trends in the CNY/TWD Exchange Rate

Between December 30, 2024, and June 27, 2025, the CNY/TWD exchange rate experienced significant variability. The highest recorded rate during this period was 4.5862 TWD per CNY on January 30, 2025, while the lowest was 4.0000 TWD per CNY on May 5, 2025. The average exchange rate over these six months was approximately 4.3979 TWD per CNY. (exchangerates.org.uk)

In the first quarter of 2025, the exchange rate demonstrated a gradual upward trend. For instance, on March 31, 2025, the rate closed at 4.5851 TWD per CNY, marking a 0.34% increase from the previous day. This upward movement suggests a strengthening of the Chinese Yuan relative to the New Taiwan Dollar during this period. (exchangerates.org.uk)

Factors Influencing the Exchange Rate

Several factors have contributed to the fluctuations in the CNY/TWD exchange rate:

1. Economic Indicators: Differences in economic performance between China and Taiwan, such as GDP growth rates, inflation, and employment figures, can impact investor confidence and influence currency values.

2. Monetary Policies: Decisions by the People's Bank of China and the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) regarding interest rates and money supply can affect the attractiveness of their respective currencies.

3. Trade Relations: The trade balance between China and Taiwan plays a role in currency demand. A trade surplus in China, for example, increases demand for the Yuan, potentially strengthening it against the Taiwan Dollar.

4. Geopolitical Events: Political developments, including cross-strait relations and international trade agreements, can lead to market uncertainty, affecting exchange rates.

Technical Analysis

As of May 30, 2025, technical indicators provided a mixed outlook for the CNY/TWD pair. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 52.66, indicating neutral momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) was at 0, suggesting a lack of strong directional movement. Moving averages presented a divided picture:

• Short-Term (MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50): Indicated a 'Buy' signal, suggesting potential short-term upward momentum.

• Long-Term (MA100, MA200): Indicated a 'Sell' signal, suggesting potential long-term downward pressure.

These mixed signals reflect the uncertainty and volatility in the market during that period. (investing.com)

Forecast and Future Outlook

Forecasts for the CNY/TWD exchange rate suggest modest fluctuations in the near future. For instance, projections indicate a potential rise to 4.073 TWD per CNY within a year, representing a slight increase from the current rate. Long-term projections estimate the rate reaching 4.133 TWD per CNY by 2030. (walletinvestor.com)

It's important to note that exchange rate forecasts are subject to change due to unforeseen economic developments, policy changes, and geopolitical events. Investors and businesses engaged in cross-strait activities should monitor these factors closely to make informed decisions.

Conclusion

The CNY/TWD exchange rate has experienced notable fluctuations over the past six months, influenced by a combination of economic indicators, monetary policies, trade relations, and geopolitical events. While technical analysis provides mixed signals, forecasts suggest modest fluctuations in the near future. Stakeholders should remain vigilant and consider both macroeconomic trends and technical indicators when making decisions related to this currency pair.