Exchange Rate Calculator

The ETH/BTC exchange rate, representing the value of Ethereum (ETH) relative to Bitcoin (BTC), has experienced significant fluctuations over the past few months. As of May 3, 2025, Ethereum is trading at $1,842.25, while Bitcoin stands at $96,894.00, resulting in an ETH/BTC ratio of approximately 0.019. This marks a substantial decline from previous levels, reflecting Ethereum's underperformance relative to Bitcoin.

Recent Performance and Historical Context

In early 2025, the ETH/BTC ratio approached the critical 0.05 BTC level, signaling potential further losses if key support failed. Institutional preference for Bitcoin and Ethereum's lack of catalysts contributed to ETH's prolonged underperformance.

Historically, the ETH/BTC ratio has exhibited cyclical patterns. For instance, in December 2020, a Dragonfly Doji on the two-week chart preceded a 275% surge in the ratio. Similarly, a comparable pattern in September 2019 led to a 150% rally. These historical precedents suggest that while the current trend is bearish, potential for a bullish reversal exists.

Factors Influencing the ETH/BTC Ratio

Several factors have contributed to the recent decline in the ETH/BTC ratio:

1. Institutional Investment Trends: Bitcoin has remained the preferred asset for institutional adoption, especially following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. Capital continues to flow into BTC rather than altcoins, including ETH.

2. Ethereum's Supply Dynamics: An increase in Ethereum's circulating supply has exerted downward pressure on its price. Over a 30-day period, 66,748 new ETH were added to circulation, valued at over $140 million, weakening demand and fueling the downtrend.

3. Technical Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the ETH/BTC two-week chart fell to a historical low of 23.32. While an RSI below 30 typically indicates an oversold condition that may trigger a rebound, Ethereum's RSI continued to decline for two months after being oversold, indicating that the downward trend was accelerating rather than stabilizing.

Potential for Reversal

Despite the current bearish trend, there are indicators suggesting a potential reversal:

• Technical Patterns: The formation of a Dragonfly Doji on the ETH/BTC two-week chart indicates a potential bullish reversal, with Ethereum targeting the 0.048 BTC resistance.

• Historical Cycles: Comparative analysis with previous market cycles reveals that the current ETH/BTC decline mirrors past trends, suggesting that a rebound could be forthcoming.

• Institutional Accumulation: Entities like World Liberty Financial (WLFI) have been accumulating significant amounts of ETH, potentially strengthening demand and supporting Ethereum's market recovery.

Conclusion

The ETH/BTC exchange rate has experienced a notable decline in recent months, influenced by factors such as institutional investment preferences, supply dynamics, and technical indicators. While the current trend is bearish, historical patterns and emerging technical signals suggest the potential for a reversal. Investors should monitor these developments closely, considering both the risks and opportunities presented by the evolving cryptocurrency landscape.