Exchange Rate Calculator

Over the past few months, the GBP/EUR exchange rate has exhibited notable fluctuations, influenced by a combination of economic indicators, monetary policies, and geopolitical events. As of March 19, 2025, the exchange rate stood at approximately 1.189 EUR per GBP, reflecting a modest increase from 1.170 a year prior.

Recent Exchange Rate Movements

In the first quarter of 2025, the GBP/EUR exchange rate experienced a series of fluctuations. In early January, the rate was around 1.184 EUR per GBP. By mid-February, it had risen to approximately 1.210, before declining to 1.189 by mid-March. These movements were influenced by various factors, including central bank policies and economic data releases.

Monetary Policy Decisions

The Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) have played pivotal roles in shaping the GBP/EUR exchange rate through their monetary policy decisions. In early February 2025, the BoE reduced interest rates from 4.75% to 4.5%, accompanied by a dovish outlook suggesting potential further cuts. This decision led to a depreciation of the Pound against the Euro. Conversely, the ECB's decision to cut borrowing costs in December 2024, while signaling more to come, contributed to the Euro's relative weakness.

Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment

Economic data releases have also impacted the exchange rate. For instance, in March 2025, Germany reported a decline in its trade surplus and a significant drop in exports, which could have weakened the Euro. However, the Euro managed to gain against the Pound, possibly due to its negative correlation with a weakening US Dollar during that period.

Divergent Forecasts

Analysts have offered varying forecasts for the GBP/EUR exchange rate. ING projected a weakening of the Pound to 1.1365 EUR over the next 12 months, citing economic and political factors. In contrast, MUFG anticipated the Pound strengthening to at least 1.1975 EUR, highlighting the complexity and uncertainty in the current economic landscape.

Technical Analysis

Technical indicators as of mid-March 2025 suggested a bearish outlook for the GBP/EUR pair. Moving averages and oscillators indicated selling pressure, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44.342, signaling potential further downside.

Conclusion

The GBP/EUR exchange rate has been subject to significant volatility in recent months, driven by monetary policy decisions, economic data releases, and market sentiment. While some forecasts predict a strengthening Pound, others anticipate a weakening trend, reflecting the inherent uncertainties in the global economic environment. Investors and businesses should closely monitor these developments to make informed decisions.