Exchange Rate Calculator

The exchange rate between the British Pound (GBP) and the South African Rand (ZAR) has exhibited notable fluctuations over the past few months. This report delves into the recent trends, technical indicators, and potential future movements of the GBP/ZAR currency pair.

Recent Exchange Rate Trends

Between September 20, 2024, and March 17, 2025, the GBP/ZAR exchange rate experienced significant volatility. The highest recorded rate during this period was 23.851 ZAR per GBP on November 9, 2024, while the lowest was 21.578 ZAR per GBP on November 15, 2024. The average exchange rate over these six months stood at approximately 23.082 ZAR per GBP.

In the more recent timeframe from February 17 to March 16, 2025, the exchange rate continued to fluctuate. The highest rate observed was 23.9039 ZAR per GBP, and the lowest was 23.0637 ZAR per GBP. The average rate during this period was 23.4181 ZAR per GBP, indicating a relatively stable trend with minor fluctuations.

Technical Analysis

As of March 20, 2025, technical indicators suggested a bullish outlook for the GBP/ZAR pair. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 53.307, indicating neutral momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a value of 0.008, supporting a buy signal. Additionally, the Average Directional Index (ADX) stood at 26.974, suggesting a strengthening trend.

Moving averages further reinforced this positive sentiment. The 5-day simple moving average was at 23.5805, and the 10-day simple moving average was at 23.5670, both indicating upward momentum.

Forecast and Future Outlook

Looking ahead, forecasts indicate a potential appreciation of the GBP against the ZAR. Projections suggest that the exchange rate could reach 24.679 ZAR per GBP within a year, representing a 4.77% increase. Over a five-year horizon, the rate is expected to rise to 29.229 ZAR per GBP, marking a 24.09% increase.

Factors Influencing the Exchange Rate

Several factors could influence the GBP/ZAR exchange rate in the coming months:

• Economic Indicators: Economic data releases from both the UK and South Africa, such as GDP growth rates, inflation figures, and employment statistics, can impact currency valuations.

• Monetary Policy: Decisions by the Bank of England and the South African Reserve Bank regarding interest rates and monetary policy can influence investor sentiment and currency demand.

• Commodity Prices: South Africa's economy is heavily reliant on commodities. Fluctuations in commodity prices, especially gold, can affect the ZAR's strength.

• Global Risk Sentiment: As an emerging market currency, the ZAR is sensitive to global risk appetite. Periods of risk aversion can lead to ZAR depreciation against major currencies like the GBP.

Conclusion

The GBP/ZAR exchange rate has shown considerable volatility over the past few months, with technical indicators currently suggesting a bullish trend. Forecasts point towards a potential appreciation of the GBP against the ZAR in the medium to long term. However, various economic, monetary, and global factors will continue to play a crucial role in determining the future trajectory of this currency pair.