Exchange Rate Calculator

The exchange rate between the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY) has exhibited notable fluctuations over the past few months, influenced by various economic factors and market sentiments. This report provides an analysis of the recent trends, technical indicators, and forecasts for the HKD/JPY currency pair.

Recent Exchange Rate Trends

Between November 2024 and March 2025, the HKD/JPY exchange rate experienced significant volatility. In November 2024, the rate reached a high of approximately ¥20.34 per HKD. However, by March 2025, it had declined to around ¥19.12 per HKD, marking a decrease of about 6% over this period.

In the first quarter of 2025, the exchange rate continued to fluctuate. For instance, on March 7, 2025, the rate was ¥19.0483 per HKD, slightly increasing to ¥19.2066 by March 21, 2025. These movements reflect the dynamic nature of the currency pair, influenced by both domestic and international economic developments.

Technical Analysis

As of February 11, 2025, technical indicators provided mixed signals for the HKD/JPY pair. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 50.005, indicating neutral momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a value of 0.004, suggesting a potential buy signal. However, the Average Directional Index (ADX) was at 21.851, pointing to a weak trend. Moving averages presented a bearish outlook, with the 5-day, 10-day, and 50-day simple moving averages all signaling sell positions.

Forecasts and Projections

Forecasts for the HKD/JPY exchange rate indicate a gradual increase in the short term. For example, projections for March 2025 suggest an average rate of ¥19.24 per HKD, with expected fluctuations between ¥19.1439 and ¥19.3361. Similar trends are anticipated for April and May 2025, with average rates projected at ¥19.2593 and ¥19.2496, respectively.

Long-term forecasts predict a steady increase in the HKD/JPY exchange rate over the next decade. By 2035, the rate is expected to reach approximately ¥21.9117 per HKD, reflecting an average annual growth.

Factors Influencing the Exchange Rate

Several factors have contributed to the recent movements in the HKD/JPY exchange rate:

• Economic Policies: Monetary policies implemented by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Bank of Japan have significant impacts on the exchange rate. Interest rate decisions, quantitative easing measures, and other policy tools can influence investor confidence and currency valuations.

• Trade Relations: The trade dynamics between Hong Kong and Japan, including export and import volumes, affect the demand and supply for each currency, thereby impacting the exchange rate.

• Global Economic Conditions: Global events, such as economic downturns, geopolitical tensions, and changes in commodity prices, can lead to shifts in investor sentiment, affecting currency values.

Conclusion

The HKD/JPY exchange rate has experienced notable fluctuations over the past few months, influenced by a combination of technical factors and broader economic conditions. While short-term forecasts suggest a gradual increase, the exchange rate remains susceptible to various influences, including monetary policies, trade relations, and global economic developments. Investors and stakeholders should closely monitor these factors to make informed decisions regarding the HKD/JPY currency pair.