Exchange Rate Calculator

The exchange rate between the South Korean Won (KRW) and the US Dollar (USD) is a critical indicator of the economic relationship between South Korea and the United States. Over the past few months, this rate has experienced notable fluctuations, influenced by various economic factors and market sentiments. This report provides an analysis of the recent trends in the KRW/USD exchange rate, examines the underlying factors contributing to these movements, and offers insights into potential future developments.

Recent Trends in the KRW/USD Exchange Rate

Over the past year, the KRW/USD exchange rate has exhibited significant volatility. In April 2025, the exchange rate reached a peak of approximately 1 USD to 1,487.92 KRW on April 8. This marked a substantial depreciation of the Won against the Dollar. However, by June 25, 2025, the rate had appreciated to 1 USD to 1,349.60 KRW, indicating a strengthening of the Won. As of July 3, 2025, the exchange rate stands at 1 USD to 1,364.56 KRW, reflecting a slight depreciation from the June low but still stronger compared to the April peak. (poundsterlinglive.com)

Factors Influencing the KRW/USD Exchange Rate

Several key factors have contributed to the recent movements in the KRW/USD exchange rate:

1. Monetary Policy Divergence

The differing monetary policies of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Korea have played a significant role in exchange rate fluctuations. When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates more aggressively than the Bank of Korea, the USD tends to strengthen against the KRW. Conversely, if the Bank of Korea adopts a more hawkish stance, the Won may appreciate relative to the Dollar. (forexleaderboard.com)

2. Global Risk Sentiment

The South Korean Won is often considered a "risk-on" currency, meaning it tends to strengthen when global economic prospects are positive and weaken during periods of risk aversion. In contrast, the US Dollar is viewed as a safe-haven currency, appreciating during times of global uncertainty. This inverse relationship can lead to increased volatility in the KRW/USD exchange rate based on shifts in investor sentiment. (forexleaderboard.com)

3. Trade Flows and Economic Performance

South Korea's export-driven economy means that its trade performance significantly impacts the value of the Won. Strong export growth can lead to a stronger KRW, while a slowdown in exports may result in depreciation. Additionally, differences in economic growth rates between the US and South Korea influence the exchange rate. Robust US economic growth can strengthen the USD, whereas faster growth in South Korea can bolster the KRW. (forexleaderboard.com)

4. Geopolitical Tensions

Geopolitical developments, particularly those involving North Korea, can affect investor confidence and influence the KRW/USD exchange rate. Heightened tensions often lead to a weaker Won as investors seek safer assets, such as the US Dollar. (forexleaderboard.com)

Technical Analysis and Chart Insights

Technical indicators provide additional insights into the KRW/USD exchange rate movements:

1. Moving Averages

• Short-term Trend: The KRW/USD pair has recently traded below its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), indicating potential short-term consolidation.
• Medium-term Trend: The 50-day and 200-day SMAs have acted as resistance zones during recent rallies, with the 1,420–1,440 range being a key technical area to monitor. (ebc.com)

2. Oscillators

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI reached overbought territory in April, preceding the recent pullback, suggesting a potential reversal.
• MACD: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has signaled bearish divergence during recent highs, indicating waning upward momentum. (ebc.com)

3. Support and Resistance Levels

• Support: Key support is observed near the 1,375–1,390 range, where buyers have previously entered the market.
• Resistance: The 1,420–1,450 zone has capped several recent rallies, with a break above this level potentially leading to further Won weakness. (ebc.com)

4. Chart Patterns

Recent trading has seen the formation of consolidation ranges and potential reversal patterns, such as double tops near 1,470 and double bottoms around 1,375, which are worth monitoring for breakout or breakdown signals. (ebc.com)

Forecast and Future Outlook

Looking ahead, forecasts suggest a potential appreciation of the KRW against the USD. For instance, in May 2025, the USD/KRW exchange rate was projected to decrease, with an average price of 1,313.59 KRW per USD. This trend was expected to continue into June and July, with further appreciation of the KRW. (coincodex.com)

However, it's essential to consider that exchange rate forecasts are subject to uncertainties, including changes in monetary policies, global economic conditions, and geopolitical events. Therefore, while current projections indicate a strengthening of the KRW, market participants should remain vigilant and consider a range of factors when making decisions related to the KRW/USD exchange rate.

Conclusion

The KRW/USD exchange rate has experienced notable fluctuations over the past few months, influenced by monetary policy divergence, global risk sentiment, trade flows, economic performance, and geopolitical tensions. Technical analysis indicates key support and resistance levels, as well as potential reversal patterns that market participants should monitor. While forecasts suggest a potential appreciation of the KRW against the USD in the near term, various factors could influence future movements. Therefore, continuous monitoring of economic indicators and market developments is crucial for making informed decisions regarding the KRW/USD exchange rate.