Exchange Rate Calculator

The exchange rate between the Mexican Peso (MXN) and the US Dollar (USD) has experienced notable fluctuations over the past few months, influenced by various economic and political factors. This report provides an analysis of the recent trends, underlying causes, and future outlook for the MXN/USD currency pair.

Recent Exchange Rate Trends

As of March 14, 2025, the exchange rate stood at 1 MXN to 0.0504 USD, marking a 1.19% increase from the previous market day and a 15.92% decrease compared to the same date in the previous year. (ycharts.com) This indicates a significant depreciation of the Peso against the Dollar over the past year.

In the first quarter of 2025, the MXN/USD exchange rate exhibited relative stability with minor fluctuations. For instance, on March 8, 2025, the rate was 1 MXN to 0.0493 USD, showing a slight increase from 0.0487 USD a week prior. (exchangerates.org.uk) This stability suggests that the Peso has been maintaining its value against the Dollar in recent months.

Factors Influencing the Exchange Rate

Several factors have contributed to the recent performance of the MXN/USD exchange rate:

1. Trade Relations and Tariffs: In early April 2025, the US administration announced new tariffs on Mexican goods. Despite this escalation, the Peso was expected to trade relatively stable in the coming months. This resilience was attributed to successful negotiations by Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, which moderated the initial impact of the tariffs. (reuters.com)

2. Economic Indicators: Mexico's economic performance, including GDP growth, inflation rates, and employment figures, plays a crucial role in determining the Peso's strength. Positive economic data can bolster investor confidence, leading to a stronger Peso, while negative indicators may result in depreciation.

3. Monetary Policy: The monetary policies of both Mexico's central bank (Banco de México) and the US Federal Reserve influence the exchange rate. Interest rate decisions, inflation targets, and other policy measures can affect capital flows and, consequently, the value of the Peso relative to the Dollar.

4. Global Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment towards emerging markets, geopolitical events, and global economic conditions can lead to capital inflows or outflows, impacting the MXN/USD exchange rate.

Future Outlook

Analysts have provided various forecasts for the MXN/USD exchange rate:

• Short-Term Forecast: In one month, the exchange rate is projected to be 1 MXN to 0.0492 USD, a 1.99% decrease from the current rate. (exchangerates.org.uk)

• Medium-Term Forecast: In four months, the rate is expected to be 1 MXN to 0.0497 USD, a 1% decrease. (exchangerates.org.uk)

• Long-Term Forecast: By December 2025, the USD/MXN exchange rate is predicted to trade between 19.76 and 20.54, indicating a potential depreciation of the Peso by approximately 1.03% compared to current levels. (coincodex.com)

These projections suggest a modest depreciation of the Peso against the Dollar over the coming months. However, it's essential to consider that exchange rate forecasts are subject to uncertainties, including changes in economic policies, global market dynamics, and unforeseen geopolitical events.

Conclusion

The MXN/USD exchange rate has shown relative stability in recent months, despite challenges such as new US tariffs on Mexican goods. The Peso's resilience can be attributed to effective negotiations by Mexican authorities and favorable economic indicators. While forecasts indicate a slight depreciation of the Peso in the near future, the actual trajectory will depend on a complex interplay of domestic and international factors. Stakeholders should remain vigilant and consider a range of scenarios when making financial decisions related to this currency pair.