Exchange Rate Calculator

The exchange rate between the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY) has exhibited notable fluctuations over the past few months, influenced by a combination of economic indicators, central bank policies, and global market sentiments. This report provides an in-depth analysis of the recent trends, underlying factors, and potential future movements of the NZD/JPY currency pair.

Recent Performance and Trends

As of July 3, 2025, the NZD/JPY exchange rate stands at approximately 87.48. Over the past six months, the pair has experienced significant volatility:

• Highs and Lows: The highest exchange rate during this period was 89.111 JPY per NZD on January 7, 2025, while the lowest was 80.575 JPY per NZD on April 6, 2025. (exchangerates.org.uk)

• Recent Movements: In the past month, the pair reached a high of 88.441 JPY on June 30, 2025, and a low of 85.544 JPY on June 3, 2025. (poundsterlinglive.com)

These fluctuations reflect the dynamic nature of the currency pair, influenced by both domestic and international economic factors.

Technical Analysis

Technical indicators provide insights into the current momentum and potential future movements of the NZD/JPY pair:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): As of June 27, 2025, the RSI stood at 50.838, indicating neutral market conditions without clear overbought or oversold signals. (investing.com)

• Moving Averages: The pair is trading above its 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) by 1.11% and 1.5%, respectively, suggesting a bullish trend. (exchangerates.org.uk)

• MACD: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is below its signal line, indicating negative momentum and confirming a downtrend. (exchangerates.org.uk)

These indicators suggest a cautious outlook, with potential for both upward and downward movements depending on forthcoming economic data and market sentiment.

Fundamental Factors Influencing the Pair

Several fundamental factors have influenced the NZD/JPY exchange rate:

1. Global Economic Sentiment: Periods of risk aversion in global markets have bolstered the JPY, a traditional safe-haven currency, leading to downward pressure on the NZD/JPY pair.

2. Central Bank Policies: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a relatively hawkish stance, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has shown signs of adjusting its ultra-loose monetary policy. Speculation about potential changes in the BoJ's yield curve control policy has strengthened the JPY.

3. Economic Data: New Zealand's economic data has been mixed, with signs of slowing growth in key sectors such as housing and exports. The country's reliance on commodity exports, particularly to China, has made it vulnerable to fluctuations in global demand.

Future Outlook

Forecasts suggest a potential appreciation of the NZD/JPY pair in the coming months:

• Short-Term Forecasts: Projections indicate that the exchange rate could reach 83.89 JPY per NZD by September 2025, 84.00 by December 2025, and 84.28 by March 2026. (exchangerates.org.uk)

• Long-Term Forecasts: Some analysts predict the pair could rise to 89.82 JPY per NZD in September 2025, with a projected trading range between 88.01 and 89.82, suggesting a positive market outlook. (coincodex.com)

However, several risks could impact these forecasts:

• Global Economic Uncertainty: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and potential changes in international trade regulations could influence investor sentiment and currency movements.

• Central Bank Policy Shifts: Unexpected changes in monetary policies by the RBNZ or BoJ could lead to increased volatility in the NZD/JPY pair.

• Commodity Price Fluctuations: As New Zealand's economy is heavily reliant on commodity exports, any significant changes in commodity prices could affect the NZD's strength.

Conclusion

The NZD/JPY exchange rate has exhibited volatility over the past few months, influenced by a complex interplay of technical indicators, fundamental factors, and global economic conditions. While forecasts suggest potential appreciation in the near term, traders and investors should remain vigilant, considering the various risks and uncertainties that could impact the currency pair's performance.