Exchange Rate Calculator

The exchange rate between the South African Rand (ZAR) and the Australian Dollar (AUD) has exhibited notable fluctuations over the past few months. This report provides an analysis of the recent trends, technical indicators, and forecasts to offer a comprehensive understanding of the ZAR/AUD currency pair's performance.

Recent Exchange Rate Trends

As of March 21, 2025, the ZAR/AUD exchange rate stood at 0.08749, marking a 0.22% increase from the previous day. Over the preceding month, the pair experienced a range between 0.08500 and 0.08785, with an average rate of 0.08646. Notably, the highest rate during this period was 0.08785, while the lowest was 0.08500.

In the broader context of 2025, the exchange rate reached its peak at 0.08718 on March 11 and its lowest point at 0.08492 on January 13. The average rate for the year up to March 21 was 0.08594, indicating a 1.82% appreciation of the Rand against the Australian Dollar.

Technical Analysis

Technical indicators as of January 7, 2025, suggested a bullish sentiment for the ZAR/AUD pair. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 50.93, indicating neutral momentum. The Average Directional Index (ADX) stood at 30.642, signaling a strong trend. Moving averages presented a mixed outlook:

• Simple Moving Averages (SMA):

  • 5-day SMA at 0.08580 (Buy)
  • 10-day SMA at 0.08578 (Buy)
  • 20-day SMA at 0.08580 (Buy)
  • 50-day SMA at 0.08587 (Sell)
  • 100-day SMA at 0.08586 (Sell)
  • 200-day SMA at 0.08568 (Buy)

• Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):

  • 5-day EMA at 0.08581 (Buy)
  • 10-day EMA at 0.08579 (Buy)
  • 20-day EMA at 0.08583 (Buy)
  • 50-day EMA at 0.08586 (Sell)
  • 100-day EMA at 0.08582 (Buy)
  • 200-day EMA at 0.08591 (Sell)

These indicators reflect a short-term bullish trend, with longer-term averages suggesting potential resistance.

Forecasts and Outlook

Forecasts for the ZAR/AUD exchange rate present varying perspectives:

• Short-Term Forecasts:

  • In the next three months, the exchange rate is projected to decrease by 4.73%, reaching 0.0826.
  • Conversely, another forecast anticipates a 1.56% increase over the next month, bringing the rate to 0.088326.

• Medium-Term Forecasts:

  • Over the next six months, the rate is expected to decline by 5.42%, settling at 0.082.
  • An alternative analysis predicts a 2.41% increase, reaching 0.089066 in the same period.

• Long-Term Forecasts:

  • By the end of 2025, the exchange rate is forecasted to decrease by 6.23%, reaching 0.0813.
  • Another projection suggests a 6.03% rise over the next year, resulting in a rate of 0.09222.

These differing forecasts highlight the uncertainty and volatility inherent in currency markets.

Factors Influencing the Exchange Rate

Several factors contribute to the fluctuations in the ZAR/AUD exchange rate:

• Economic Indicators: Differences in GDP growth, inflation rates, and employment figures between South Africa and Australia can impact currency valuations.

• Commodity Prices: Both countries are major commodity exporters. Variations in global commodity prices, such as gold and coal, can influence their respective currencies.

• Interest Rates: Diverging monetary policies and interest rate decisions by the South African Reserve Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia affect investor sentiment and capital flows.

• Political Stability: Political events and stability within each country can lead to changes in investor confidence, impacting currency strength.

Conclusion

The ZAR/AUD exchange rate has shown moderate volatility in recent months, with technical indicators suggesting a short-term bullish trend. However, forecasts for the coming months and year are mixed, reflecting the complex interplay of economic, political, and market factors. Investors and stakeholders should closely monitor these variables to make informed decisions regarding the ZAR/AUD currency pair.