Exchange Rate Calculator

The exchange rate between the South African Rand (ZAR) and the US Dollar (USD) has experienced notable fluctuations over the past few months, influenced by a combination of economic indicators, policy decisions, and technical market patterns. This report provides an analysis of these factors and offers insights into the potential future trajectory of the ZAR/USD exchange rate.

Recent Exchange Rate Trends

As of March 14, 2025, the USD/ZAR exchange rate stood at 18.16, reflecting a slight depreciation of the Rand compared to the previous day's rate of 18.31. Over the past year, the exchange rate has shown a modest improvement from 18.73, indicating a 3.06% appreciation of the Rand against the Dollar. (ycharts.com)

Technical Analysis

Technical indicators have provided mixed signals regarding the future direction of the USD/ZAR pair:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): The 14-day RSI is at 41.97, suggesting a neutral market condition.

• Moving Averages: The current exchange rate is below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 18.64 but above the 200-day SMA of 18.35, indicating mixed signals.

• Market Sentiment: Approximately 69% of technical indicators signal a bearish outlook, while 31% suggest bullish tendencies. (ebc.com)

Additionally, a megaphone pattern has been identified on the daily chart, characterized by two diverging trendlines. This pattern is often considered a bullish continuation signal, suggesting potential further weakening of the Rand. Analysts have projected that the USD/ZAR pair could reach levels around 19.95, with the possibility of hitting 20 in the near future. (invezz.com)

Economic Indicators Influencing the Rand

Several economic factors have played a role in the recent performance of the Rand:

• Inflation Rates: South Africa's headline consumer price index rose to 3.2% in January 2025, matching analysts' expectations. This increase in inflation has implications for monetary policy and the attractiveness of the Rand to investors. (invezz.com)

• Fiscal Policies: The South African government's budget, presented by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana, emphasized spending cuts and a moderated VAT increase, aiming to stabilize the economy. A well-received budget could strengthen the Rand. (ebc.com)

• US Economic Policies: The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates and economic policies under President Trump's administration influence the Dollar's strength, subsequently affecting the USD/ZAR pair. (ebc.com)

Forecasts and Projections

Looking ahead, various forecasts provide insights into the potential movement of the ZAR/USD exchange rate:

• Short-Term Forecasts: In the next three months, the Rand-to-US Dollar exchange rate is expected to rise to 0.0566, approximately 2.91% higher than the current rate. (exchangerates.org.uk)

• Long-Term Forecasts: By the end of 2025, the exchange rate is projected to average around 0.0554, with values expected to range between 0.0553 and 0.0555. Looking ahead to 2026, the average rate is forecasted at 0.0558, fluctuating between 0.0557 and 0.0560. (midforex.com)

Conclusion

The ZAR/USD exchange rate is influenced by a complex interplay of technical patterns, economic indicators, and policy decisions. While technical analyses suggest potential further weakening of the Rand, economic policies and global market conditions will play crucial roles in determining the actual trajectory of the exchange rate. Investors and stakeholders should closely monitor these factors to make informed decisions in the dynamic foreign exchange market.