Exchange Rate Calculator

The exchange rate between the Brazilian Real (BRL) and the Japanese Yen (JPY) has experienced notable fluctuations over the past few months. This report provides an analysis of the recent trends, technical indicators, and forecasts to offer a comprehensive understanding of the BRL/JPY currency pair.

Recent Exchange Rate Trends

Between December 12, 2024, and March 12, 2025, the BRL/JPY exchange rate exhibited significant volatility. The highest rate during this period was ¥26.816 per BRL on February 4, 2025, while the lowest was ¥23.346 on December 25, 2024. The average exchange rate over these 90 days was approximately ¥25.818, indicating an overall increase of 0.48% in the BRL/JPY rate during this timeframe.

Technical Analysis

As of February 7, 2025, technical indicators suggested a bearish outlook for the BRL/JPY pair:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI 14): 39.73, indicating a sell signal.
• Stochastic Oscillator (9,6): 21.554, also suggesting a sell.
• Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD 12,26): -0.049, reinforcing the sell sentiment.
• Average Directional Index (ADX 14): 32.274, pointing towards a sell.
• Williams %R: -86.935, indicating an oversold condition.

Moving averages further supported this bearish sentiment, with both simple and exponential moving averages across various periods signaling a strong sell.

Forecasts and Projections

Looking ahead, forecasts for the BRL/JPY exchange rate present a mixed picture:

• Short-Term Forecast: One projection anticipated the exchange rate to rise to ¥28.015 within a month from the current rate of ¥26.0574, representing a 7.51% increase.

• Mid-Term Forecast: Another forecast predicted a gradual decline in the exchange rate, with an average rate of ¥24.5330 in May 2025, slightly decreasing to ¥24.5232 by July 2025.

These differing projections highlight the uncertainty and potential volatility in the BRL/JPY exchange rate in the coming months.

Historical Context

To provide a broader perspective, examining the exchange rate history over the past few years reveals:

• 2023: The BRL/JPY exchange rate fluctuated between approximately ¥27.59 and ¥30.09, with notable peaks in October 2023.

• 2022: The exchange rate ranged from around ¥22.32 in March to ¥28.79 in October, indicating significant volatility throughout the year.

• 2021: The rate varied between approximately ¥18.70 in March and ¥22.48 in June, reflecting a period of relative stability compared to subsequent years.

Factors Influencing the Exchange Rate

Several factors have contributed to the fluctuations in the BRL/JPY exchange rate:

• Economic Policies: Monetary policies implemented by the central banks of Brazil and Japan, including interest rate adjustments and quantitative easing measures, have impacted currency valuations.

• Trade Balances: The trade dynamics between Brazil and Japan, including export and import volumes, influence demand for each country's currency.

• Global Economic Conditions: Events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and shifts in global commodity prices have affected investor sentiment and currency markets.

• Inflation Rates: Diverging inflation rates between Brazil and Japan can lead to adjustments in the exchange rate to maintain purchasing power parity.

Conclusion

The BRL/JPY exchange rate has demonstrated considerable volatility over the past few months, influenced by a combination of technical factors, economic policies, and global events. While some forecasts suggest a potential appreciation of the Brazilian Real against the Japanese Yen in the short term, others predict a gradual decline. Investors and stakeholders should closely monitor economic indicators, central bank policies, and global market developments to make informed decisions regarding this currency pair.