Exchange Rate Calculator

The exchange rate between the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY) has exhibited notable fluctuations over the past six months, influenced by various economic factors and market sentiments. This report provides an in-depth analysis of the CAD/JPY currency pair, examining its recent performance, technical indicators, and future outlook.

Recent Performance

As of July 3, 2025, the CAD/JPY exchange rate stands at approximately 105.09 JPY per 1 CAD. Over the past six months, the pair has experienced significant volatility:

• Highs and Lows: The highest exchange rate during this period was 110.11 JPY on January 14, 2025, while the lowest was 101.72 JPY on April 21, 2025. (exchangerates.org.uk)

• Average Rate: The average exchange rate over the past 180 days has been approximately 105.25 JPY. (exchangerates.org.uk)

These fluctuations can be attributed to various factors, including changes in oil prices, trade tensions, and differing monetary policies between Canada and Japan.

Technical Analysis

Technical indicators provide insights into the current market sentiment and potential future movements of the CAD/JPY pair:

• Moving Averages: The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) is at 105.5057, and the 50-day EMA is at 104.9207, both suggesting a 'Buy' signal. (tipranks.com)

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI (14) is at 55.9377, indicating neutral market conditions. (tipranks.com)

• MACD: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is at 0.5100, suggesting a 'Sell' signal. (tipranks.com)

These mixed signals reflect the current market uncertainty and the need for cautious trading strategies.

Economic Factors Influencing CAD/JPY

Several economic factors have influenced the CAD/JPY exchange rate:

• Oil Prices: As a major exporter of oil, Canada's currency is sensitive to changes in oil prices. Recent volatility in oil markets has impacted the CAD's strength.

• Trade Tensions: Rising tariffs and trade tensions, particularly the 24% tariffs introduced by the US, pose risks to Japan's export-driven economy. Such tensions have historically increased the demand for the yen as a protective asset during economic uncertainty. (bestexchangerates.com)

• Monetary Policies: The Bank of Canada's interest rate decisions and the Bank of Japan's monetary policies play pivotal roles in shaping investor sentiment and currency movements. (bestexchangerates.com)

Forecasts and Future Outlook

Market analysts have provided various forecasts for the CAD/JPY exchange rate:

• Short-Term Forecasts: In the near term, CAD/JPY has been trading near 14-day lows around 105.5, slightly above its three-month average of 104.4. This stability has occurred within a relatively tight range, although volatility in oil prices could influence future CAD performance. (bestexchangerates.com)

• Long-Term Forecasts: Some analysts predict a gradual decline in the CAD/JPY exchange rate over the next year, with projections indicating a decrease to 102.528 by Q3 2025 and further declines in subsequent quarters. (exchangerates.org.uk)

These forecasts suggest a cautious outlook for the CAD/JPY pair, with potential for both upward and downward movements depending on economic developments.

Conclusion

The CAD/JPY exchange rate has experienced significant volatility over the past six months, influenced by factors such as oil price fluctuations, trade tensions, and differing monetary policies. Technical indicators present mixed signals, reflecting current market uncertainty. While some forecasts suggest a potential decline in the exchange rate, the actual trajectory will depend on future economic developments and policy decisions in both Canada and Japan.