Exchange Rate Calculator

The exchange rate between the Euro (EUR) and the Swedish Krona (SEK) has experienced notable fluctuations over the past several months, influenced by various economic factors and monetary policies. This report provides an analysis of the recent trends, underlying causes, and future projections for the EUR/SEK currency pair.

Recent Exchange Rate Trends

Between September 30, 2024, and March 27, 2025, the EUR/SEK exchange rate exhibited significant volatility. The highest recorded rate during this period was 11.700 SEK per EUR on November 5, 2024, while the lowest was 10.795 SEK per EUR on March 27, 2025. The average exchange rate over these six months was approximately 11.378 SEK per EUR.

Factors Influencing the Exchange Rate

Several key factors have contributed to the observed fluctuations in the EUR/SEK exchange rate:

1. Monetary Policy Decisions: The Riksbank, Sweden's central bank, raised its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.50% in April 2023. Despite elevated inflation, the Riksbank adopted a cautious approach to further rate hikes, which, combined with weak economic activity, has influenced the Krona's performance.

2. Economic Performance: Sweden's economic activity has been underwhelming, with concerns about the property market and overall growth prospects. These factors have contributed to the Krona's depreciation against the Euro.

3. Technical Indicators: As of March 3, 2025, technical analysis indicated a strong sell signal for EUR/SEK, with key indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.304 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at -0.008, both suggesting bearish momentum.

Future Projections

Analysts have provided varying forecasts for the EUR/SEK exchange rate:

• Short-Term Outlook: Rabobank anticipates a pullback of the EUR/SEK exchange rate to around 11.25 over the next three months, citing the Krona's oversold status and potential stabilization in the property market.

• Medium-Term Outlook: Wells Fargo projects a potential weakening of the Swedish Krona against the Euro, targeting an exchange rate of 11.5500 by the end of 2023 and 11.7000 by the third quarter of 2024.

• Long-Term Outlook: Some forecasts suggest a more significant appreciation of the Euro against the Krona, with projections indicating the EUR/SEK rate could reach approximately 12.23 SEK by the end of 2025.

Conclusion

The EUR/SEK exchange rate has been subject to considerable volatility due to a combination of monetary policy decisions, economic performance, and technical market indicators. While short-term projections suggest a potential pullback, medium to long-term forecasts indicate a possible strengthening of the Euro against the Swedish Krona. Investors and market participants should closely monitor economic developments and central bank policies in both the Eurozone and Sweden to make informed decisions regarding this currency pair.