Exchange Rate Calculator

The exchange rate between the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and the Swiss Franc (CHF) has experienced notable fluctuations over the past few months, influenced by various economic indicators and market sentiments. As of July 2, 2025, the NZD/CHF pair is trading at approximately 0.4827, reflecting a slight increase of 0.04% from the previous day. (investing.com)

Recent Exchange Rate Trends

Over the past six months, the NZD/CHF exchange rate has exhibited a downward trend. The pair reached a high of 0.5181 CHF on February 20, 2025, and a low of 0.4678 CHF on April 8, 2025. The average exchange rate during this period was approximately 0.5004 CHF. (exchange-rates.org)

In June 2025, the exchange rate remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.4835 and 0.4937 CHF. This stability suggests a temporary consolidation phase following the earlier decline. (investing.com)

Technical Analysis

As of July 1, 2025, technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for the NZD/CHF pair:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): The 14-day RSI stands at 36.903, indicating a sell signal.

• Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD (12,26) is at 0, signaling a sell.

• Average Directional Index (ADX): The ADX (14) is at 24.009, suggesting a weak trend.

Moving averages further support this bearish sentiment:

• 5-day Simple Moving Average (SMA): 0.4831 CHF (Sell)

• 10-day SMA: 0.4833 CHF (Sell)

• 20-day SMA: 0.4836 CHF (Sell)

• 50-day SMA: 0.4843 CHF (Sell)

• 100-day SMA: 0.4848 CHF (Sell)

• 200-day SMA: 0.4863 CHF (Sell)

(investing.com)

Forecasts and Market Sentiment

Forecasts for the NZD/CHF pair indicate potential fluctuations in the coming months:

• August 2025: The exchange rate is expected to decrease to approximately 0.47669 CHF, suggesting a bearish sentiment for the month. (coincodex.com)

• September 2025: A slight increase to around 0.494741 CHF is projected, indicating a positive market outlook. (coincodex.com)

• October 2025: A potential decline to an average of 0.450268 CHF is anticipated, offering short sellers a potential return of 4.51%. (coincodex.com)

• November 2025: The exchange rate is forecasted to rise to approximately 0.455116 CHF, suggesting a shift in market trend. (coincodex.com)

• December 2025: A decrease to an average of 0.446208 CHF is predicted, indicating a bearish sentiment to close the year. (coincodex.com)

Overall, the market sentiment appears neutral, with the 14-day RSI reading at 51.56, suggesting balanced conditions. The current exchange rate is above the 50-day SMA but below the 200-day SMA, indicating potential downward momentum. (coincodex.com)

Historical Context

The NZD/CHF pair has been in a long-term downtrend over the past several decades, with the Swiss Franc consistently strengthening due to its safe-haven status, low inflation, and stable banking system. Key historical events include:

• 2008–2013: During the global financial crisis, NZD/CHF plunged to around 0.60 in late 2008 as investors sought safety in the Swiss Franc. (liveindex.org)

• 2014–2019: In January 2015, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly removed the EUR/CHF floor, causing the CHF to spike across all currencies, including NZD. NZD/CHF fell to around 0.67, then gradually recovered to above 0.70 by 2017. (liveindex.org)

• 2020–2024: The COVID-19 pandemic led to NZD/CHF dropping to 0.58 in 2020, then rebounding above 0.66 as markets stabilized. In 2023–2024, the pair ranged between 0.53 and 0.59, as CHF remained strong amid European inflation concerns and global risk-off sentiment. (liveindex.org)

Scenario Analysis

Based on current trends and historical context, several scenarios could unfold:

• Bullish Scenario: If NZD/CHF breaks above long-term trendline resistance and sustains momentum above 0.58, it could target levels between 0.65 and 0.70. Key drivers would include strong Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate policy, rising commodity prices, and a risk-on sentiment. (kagels-trading.com)

• Neutral Scenario: If the price remains below the long-term resistance but consolidates above 0.50, the pair could trade within the 0.50–0.57 range. This would be driven by balanced risk sentiment and stable policies from both the RBNZ and the SNB. (kagels-trading.com)

• Bearish Scenario: If NZD/CHF fails to hold support at 0.50 and continues its long-term decline, it could target levels between 0.45 and 0.48. Key drivers would include global recession fears, CHF strength, and a weak New Zealand economy. (kagels-trading.com)

Conclusion

The NZD/CHF exchange rate has been influenced by a combination of technical indicators, market sentiment, and historical trends. While short-term forecasts suggest potential fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains cautious, with the Swiss Franc maintaining its strength as a safe-haven currency. Investors and traders should closely monitor economic indicators, central bank policies, and global market developments to make informed decisions regarding the NZD/CHF pair.