Exchange Rate Calculator

The exchange rate between the Swedish Krona (SEK) and the US Dollar (USD) has experienced notable fluctuations over the past few months, influenced by various economic factors and market sentiments. This report provides an analysis of the recent trends, underlying causes, and future projections for the SEK/USD currency pair.

Recent Exchange Rate Trends

As of July 3, 2025, the SEK/USD exchange rate stands at approximately 0.1054, indicating that one Swedish Krona is equivalent to 10.54 US cents. This reflects a modest increase of 0.15% from the previous day's close. Over the past week, the exchange rate has fluctuated between a low of 0.103 and a high of 0.10588, resulting in a 1.91% change. The annual peak for 2025 was recorded at 0.1059, marking a 0.44% increase from the current rate. (poundsterlinglive.com)

Historical Context

Historically, the Swedish Krona has exhibited periods of both strength and weakness against the US Dollar. For instance, in January 2025, the exchange rate hovered around 0.0908, indicating a weaker Krona compared to its current standing. This historical perspective underscores the currency's volatility and the influence of various economic factors over time. (exchangerates.org.uk)

Factors Influencing the SEK/USD Exchange Rate

Several key factors have contributed to the recent movements in the SEK/USD exchange rate:

1. Interest Rate Differentials: The monetary policies of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Riksbank (Sweden's central bank) play a significant role in currency valuation. If the Fed raises interest rates more aggressively than the Riksbank, it can lead to capital inflows into the US, strengthening the USD against the SEK.

2. Economic Indicators: Economic data such as GDP growth, employment figures, and inflation rates influence investor confidence. Strong economic performance in the US relative to Sweden can bolster the USD.

3. Global Market Sentiment: In times of global uncertainty, investors often seek safe-haven currencies like the USD, leading to a depreciation of riskier currencies, including the SEK.

4. Commodity Prices: Sweden's economy is partially dependent on exports of commodities. Fluctuations in commodity prices can impact the SEK's value.

Technical Analysis

Technical indicators provide insights into potential future movements of the SEK/USD pair:

• Moving Averages: As of June 28, 2025, the SEK/USD rate was trading near its 8-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), above its 21-day EMA by 0.76%, and above its 50-day EMA by 1.3%. The 8-day EMA's downward slope suggests bearish momentum, while the 100-day EMA's upward slope indicates bullish momentum. (exchangerates.org.uk)

• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line being below its signal line indicates negative momentum, confirming a downtrend.

Future Projections

Forecasts for the SEK/USD exchange rate suggest a gradual appreciation of the Krona:

• Short-Term: In the next month, the exchange rate is projected to increase by 4.27%, reaching approximately 0.107576. (coincodex.com)

• Quarterly Outlook: For Q3 2025, the average rate is expected to be 0.1059, with a 67% probability of an upward trend. By Q4 2025, the rate is anticipated to rise to 0.1077, with a 100% probability of an increase. (exchangerates.org.uk)

Conclusion

The SEK/USD exchange rate has shown resilience and moderate appreciation in recent months, influenced by interest rate differentials, economic indicators, and global market sentiment. Technical analysis indicates mixed signals, with both bearish and bullish momentum present. Future projections suggest a gradual strengthening of the Swedish Krona against the US Dollar. Investors should monitor economic developments and central bank policies in both countries to make informed decisions regarding this currency pair.