Exchange Rate Calculator

The EUR/JPY currency pair, representing the exchange rate between the Euro and the Japanese Yen, has exhibited notable fluctuations over the past several months. Understanding these movements requires an examination of historical data, technical indicators, and the underlying economic factors influencing both currencies.

Historical Performance

Between September 2024 and March 2025, the EUR/JPY exchange rate experienced significant volatility. The pair reached a peak of ¥166.42 on October 30, 2024, and a trough of ¥155.94 on February 27, 2025. The average exchange rate during this period was approximately ¥161.52. (exchangerates.org.uk)

In the first quarter of 2025, the exchange rate demonstrated a general upward trend. For instance, on March 21, 2025, the rate stood at ¥160.99, marking a slight increase from ¥160.85 the previous day. However, this was a decrease of 2.41% compared to the same date in 2024, when the rate was ¥164.96. (ycharts.com)

Technical Analysis

As of mid-March 2025, technical indicators provided mixed signals for the EUR/JPY pair. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 56.1912, suggesting neutral momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stood at 0.3837, indicating a potential sell signal. Moving averages presented a more bullish outlook:

• The 20-day exponential moving average was ¥159.3027, signaling a buy.
• The 50-day exponential moving average was ¥159.7350, also indicating a buy.
• The 200-day simple moving average was ¥162.9548, suggesting a sell.

(tipranks.com)

Economic Factors Influencing EUR/JPY

Several economic factors have influenced the EUR/JPY exchange rate:

• European Central Bank (ECB) Policies: The ECB's decisions on interest rates and monetary policy significantly impact the Euro's strength. Efforts to combat inflation through rate hikes can bolster the Euro.

• Bank of Japan (BOJ) Policies: The BOJ's yield curve control and interventions to maintain low yields affect the Yen's valuation. Any shifts in these policies can lead to Yen appreciation or depreciation.

• Risk Sentiment and Global Growth: The Yen often serves as a safe-haven currency during periods of market uncertainty. Conversely, the Euro may strengthen when global growth prospects improve, leading investors to seek higher-yielding assets.

(litefinance.org)

Forecasts and Outlook

Forecasts for the EUR/JPY pair in 2025 vary among analysts:

• WalletInvestor: Projects a steady bullish trend, with the pair starting at ¥174.769 in January 2025 and reaching ¥186.392 by December 2025.

• Gov Capital: Predicts a significant uptrend, forecasting an average rate of ¥224.467 for 2025.

• LongForecast: Anticipates high volatility, with rates fluctuating between ¥182 and ¥204 throughout the year.

(litefinance.org)

These projections suggest a potential appreciation of the Euro against the Yen, though the degree of change varies among forecasts.

Conclusion

The EUR/JPY exchange rate has shown considerable volatility over the past several months, influenced by central bank policies, economic indicators, and global risk sentiment. Technical analysis provides mixed signals, reflecting the complex interplay of these factors. While some forecasts predict a bullish trend for the Euro against the Yen in 2025, the exact trajectory remains uncertain. Investors should monitor economic developments and central bank policies closely to make informed decisions regarding this currency pair.