Exchange Rate Calculator

The GBP/CHF currency pair, representing the exchange rate between the British Pound Sterling (GBP) and the Swiss Franc (CHF), has exhibited notable fluctuations over the past few months. This report delves into the recent performance, underlying economic factors, and future outlook of the GBP/CHF exchange rate.

Recent Performance

As of April 21, 2025, the GBP/CHF exchange rate stands at approximately 1.14034. Over the past six months, the pair has experienced a decline of about 1.80%, indicating a strengthening of the Swiss Franc relative to the British Pound. Year-to-date, however, the pair has appreciated by 5.15%, suggesting a more complex interplay of factors influencing the exchange rate. (tradingkey.com)

Technical Analysis

Indicators and Moving Averages

Technical indicators provide insights into market sentiment and potential future movements:

• MACD (12,26,9): The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is below its signal line and negative, indicating bearish momentum.
• RSI (14): The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 48.672, suggesting neutral momentum.
• Moving Averages: The 5-day moving average is at 1.122, indicating a buy signal, while the 10-day moving average at 1.124 suggests a sell signal. (tradingkey.com)

Trading Strategy

Given the current technical indicators:

• Intraday Strategy: The downside prevails as long as 1.1264 is resistance. Below this level, the next targets are 1.1188 and 1.1162. (tradingkey.com)

Fundamental Analysis

United Kingdom Economic Overview

• GDP and Unemployment: The UK has experienced moderate GDP growth, recovering from the downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The unemployment rate has steadily decreased, reflecting a robust labor market.
• Inflation Rates: The UK has seen fluctuating inflation rates, with the Bank of England (BoE) closely monitoring price stability to maintain its target inflation rate.
• Monetary Policy: The BoE's primary objective is to maintain price stability and support economic growth. It achieves this by adjusting interest rates and using other monetary policy tools. (vstar.com)

Switzerland Economic Overview

• GDP and Unemployment: Switzerland boasts a highly developed and diverse economy with consistently strong GDP growth. The country's unemployment rate remains low compared to other developed economies.
• Inflation Rates: Switzerland has historically maintained low inflation rates, contributing to economic stability. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) closely monitors inflation to ensure price stability.
• Monetary Policy: The SNB's primary goal is to maintain price stability while considering economic developments. It uses various monetary policy tools, such as interest rates and foreign exchange interventions, to achieve its objectives. (vstar.com)

Forecast and Outlook

Short-Term Forecast (Next 3-6 Months)

• Expected Range: 1.10 – 1.18
• Analysis: The pair is likely to experience sideways movement, testing the 1.10 support level. A break below 1.10 could open doors to 1.05 or lower. (kagels-trading.com)

Medium-Term Forecast (6-24 Months)

• Potential Breakout: Above 1.20 if UK economic data improves.
• Resistance Levels: 1.26 (Fibonacci 23.6%) could cap further gains. (kagels-trading.com)

Long-Term Forecast (2-5 Years)

• Bearish Scenario: Continuation of the long-term downtrend towards parity (1.00 level).
• Bullish Scenario: A breakout beyond 1.50 would indicate a trend reversal. (kagels-trading.com)

Comparative Analysis

GBP/CHF vs. Gold (XAU/USD)

• Safe-Haven Assets: Both the Swiss Franc and Gold are considered safe-haven assets. During economic uncertainty, both tend to rise, adding downside pressure to GBP/CHF. (kagels-trading.com)

GBP/CHF vs. S&P 500 & DAX

• Stock Market Correlation: Stock market strength often correlates with GBP strength. Weak equity markets could drive investors into CHF as a safety play. (kagels-trading.com)

Conclusion

The GBP/CHF exchange rate is influenced by a complex interplay of technical indicators, economic fundamentals, and global market sentiments. While short-term movements suggest potential consolidation, medium to long-term forecasts indicate possible volatility influenced by economic policies and global financial trends. Traders and investors should closely monitor economic indicators from both the UK and Switzerland, as well as global market developments, to make informed decisions regarding the GBP/CHF currency pair.