Exchange Rate Calculator

The exchange rate between the Australian Dollar (AUD) and the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has exhibited notable fluctuations over the past several months. This report provides an analysis of the recent trends, underlying economic factors, and future projections influencing the AUD/NZD currency pair.

Recent Exchange Rate Trends

Over the past six months, the AUD/NZD exchange rate has experienced a downward trend. From a peak of 1.1202 NZD per AUD on January 18, 2025, the rate declined to a low of 1.0689 on April 22, 2025, marking a decrease of approximately 4.6%. (exchangerates.org.uk) As of June 28, 2025, the exchange rate stood at 1.0784, reflecting a modest recovery from the April low. (exchangerates.org.uk)

Divergent Monetary Policies

The monetary policies of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have played a significant role in shaping the AUD/NZD exchange rate.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): In February 2025, the RBA reduced its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1%, marking the first rate cut since November 2020. This decision was influenced by a slowdown in inflation, with the trimmed mean gauge of consumer prices rising by 3.2% year-over-year in Q4 2024, slightly below the expected 3.3%. (maybefinance.com)

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): Conversely, the RBNZ adopted a more aggressive easing stance, cutting its official cash rate by 50 basis points to 3.75% in February 2025. This move followed three consecutive rate cuts in 2024 and was driven by a deceleration in inflation and a rapid slowdown in growth conditions, including declining business confidence and a prolonged contraction in the manufacturing sector. (maybefinance.com)

Economic Indicators and Labor Market Conditions

Australia: The Australian economy has demonstrated resilience, with the unemployment rate remaining stable at 4% as of December 2024. This stability suggests a relatively robust labor market, supporting the AUD. (maybefinance.com)

New Zealand: In contrast, New Zealand's unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in Q4 2024, nearing its peak during the COVID-19 pandemic. This uptick indicates a weakening labor market, which has contributed to the NZD's underperformance. (maybefinance.com)

Interest Rate Differentials and Yield Spreads

The divergence in monetary policies has led to widening interest rate differentials between Australia and New Zealand. The 2-year and 10-year yield spreads between Australian and New Zealand government bonds have steepened, favoring the AUD. This trend suggests potential upside for the AUD/NZD exchange rate, as higher yields attract investors seeking better returns. (maybefinance.com)

Market Forecasts and Projections

ExchangeRates.org.uk: The platform forecasts the AUD/NZD exchange rate to reach 1.0945 by September 2025, 1.1082 by December 2025, and 1.1014 by March 2026. (exchangerates.org.uk)

CoinCodex: In contrast, CoinCodex projects a decrease in the AUD/NZD rate, forecasting it to hit 1.027594 in the next six months and 1.009302 in the next year, indicating a potential decline of approximately 4.64% and 6.34%, respectively. (coincodex.com)

Technical Analysis

Technical indicators provide additional insights into the AUD/NZD exchange rate dynamics.

Moving Averages: As of June 28, 2025, the AUD/NZD rate is hovering near its 8-day, 21-day, and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), trading below its 100-day EMA by 0.54%. Recent signals include a bullish crossover (8/21 EMA) on May 2, 2025, a bearish crossover on May 26, 2025, another bullish crossover on June 20, 2025, and a bearish crossover on June 28, 2025. (exchangerates.org.uk)

MACD Confirmation: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is above its signal line, indicating positive momentum and confirming an uptrend. (exchangerates.org.uk)

Conclusion

The AUD/NZD exchange rate is currently influenced by divergent monetary policies, economic indicators, and market expectations in Australia and New Zealand. The RBA's measured approach to rate cuts, coupled with a stable labor market, supports the AUD. In contrast, the RBNZ's aggressive easing and weakening economic indicators weigh on the NZD. Market forecasts and technical analyses present mixed signals, with some projections indicating potential strengthening of the AUD against the NZD, while others suggest a decline. Investors should monitor central bank communications, economic data releases, and global market developments to make informed decisions regarding the AUD/NZD currency pair.