Exchange Rate Calculator

The exchange rate between the Australian Dollar (AUD) and the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has exhibited notable fluctuations over the past few months. This report delves into the recent trends, technical indicators, and forecasts to provide a comprehensive analysis of the AUD/CAD currency pair.

Recent Exchange Rate Trends

As of July 3, 2025, the AUD/CAD exchange rate stands at approximately 0.8944. Over the past six months, the pair has experienced a range of movements:

• March 2025: The exchange rate peaked at 0.91314 on March 17, 2025.
• April 2025: A significant decline was observed, with the rate reaching a low of 0.84428 on April 9, 2025.
• June 2025: The rate showed minor fluctuations, with values ranging from 0.87904 on June 23 to 0.89631 on June 26, 2025.

These variations can be attributed to multiple factors, including economic data releases, commodity price changes, and monetary policy decisions in both Australia and Canada.

Technical Analysis

Technical indicators provide insights into the potential future movements of the AUD/CAD pair:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): As of June 28, 2025, the RSI stood at 51.31, indicating neutral conditions.
• Moving Averages:
  • 5-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA): 0.893, suggesting a buy signal.
  • 10-Day SMA: 0.895, indicating a sell signal.
  • 20-Day SMA: 0.900, also indicating a sell signal.
  • 50-Day SMA: 0.907, suggesting a sell signal.
  • 100-Day SMA: 0.913, indicating a sell signal.
  • 200-Day SMA: 0.909, suggesting a sell signal.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is above its signal line, indicating positive momentum and confirming an uptrend.

Overall, the technical indicators as of late June 2025 lean towards a neutral to slightly bearish sentiment for the AUD/CAD pair.

Forecasts and Projections

Various financial analysts have provided forecasts for the AUD/CAD exchange rate:

• Short-Term Forecast:
  • July 2025: The exchange rate is projected to rise to 0.917946, a 3.85% increase from the current rate.
  • August 2025: The rate is expected to reach 0.920027, indicating a positive market outlook.
• Medium-Term Forecast:
  • September 2025: The exchange rate is anticipated to reach 0.921191, marking a 4.40% increase.
  • October 2025: A slight decline is projected, with the rate averaging at 0.89573.
• Long-Term Forecast:
  • Q3 2026: The exchange rate is anticipated to reach 0.905, indicating a potential strengthening of the Australian Dollar against the Canadian Dollar.

These projections suggest a gradual strengthening of the Australian Dollar against the Canadian Dollar over the next year.

Factors Influencing the AUD/CAD Exchange Rate

Several factors contribute to the fluctuations in the AUD/CAD exchange rate:

• Commodity Prices: Both Australia and Canada are major exporters of commodities. Changes in global commodity prices, such as oil and minerals, can significantly impact their respective currencies.
• Interest Rate Differentials: The monetary policies of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) influence investor sentiment. Diverging interest rates can lead to capital flows that affect the exchange rate.
• Economic Indicators: Key economic data, including GDP growth, employment figures, and trade balances, play a crucial role in determining currency strength.
• Global Economic Conditions: External factors, such as geopolitical events and global economic trends, can also impact the AUD/CAD pair.

Conclusion

The AUD/CAD exchange rate has experienced moderate fluctuations over the past few months, influenced by a combination of technical factors and fundamental economic indicators. While short-term technical analysis indicates a neutral to slightly bearish trend, medium to long-term forecasts suggest a potential strengthening of the Australian Dollar against the Canadian Dollar. Investors and traders should closely monitor commodity prices, interest rate decisions, and economic data releases from both countries to make informed decisions regarding this currency pair.