Exchange Rate Calculator

The exchange rate between the Australian Dollar (AUD) and the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is a critical metric for businesses, investors, and policymakers engaged in trade and financial activities between Australia and Canada. This report provides an in-depth analysis of the AUD/CAD exchange rate over the past few months, examining historical trends, technical indicators, fundamental factors, and future forecasts to offer a comprehensive understanding of its dynamics.

Historical Performance

Over the past six months, the AUD/CAD exchange rate has exhibited notable fluctuations. In December 2024, the rate was recorded at 0.9030 AUD/CAD, a decrease from 0.9120 AUD/CAD in November 2024. This downward trend continued into early 2025, with the rate reaching a low of 0.8855 AUD/CAD in January. However, a recovery ensued, and by March 2025, the exchange rate peaked at 0.9131 AUD/CAD. As of June 3, 2025, the rate stands at approximately 0.9093 AUD/CAD. (ceicdata.com, poundsterlinglive.com)

Technical Analysis

Technical indicators provide insights into the potential future movements of the AUD/CAD exchange rate:

• Moving Averages: The 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA) are currently below the 200-day SMA, indicating a bearish trend. Specifically, the 20-day SMA is at 0.9080, and the 50-day SMA is at 0.9156, both below the 200-day SMA of 0.9074. (tipranks.com)

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): The 14-day RSI is at 33.38, suggesting that the currency pair is approaching oversold territory, which could indicate a potential reversal or consolidation in the near term. (tipranks.com)

• Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD line has crossed below the signal line, a bearish signal that suggests potential for further downside movement. (tipranks.com)

Fundamental Analysis

Several macroeconomic factors influence the AUD/CAD exchange rate:

• Economic Indicators: Australia's GDP growth rate has been robust, averaging around 4% between 2021 and 2023, driven by strong commodity exports and a resilient services sector. In contrast, Canada's GDP growth rate was slightly lower, averaging around 3% during the same period. Unemployment rates in both countries have remained relatively stable, with Australia at approximately 3.5% and Canada at 5.5%. (vstar.com)

• Inflation Rates: As of August 2023, Australia's inflation rate was around 6%, while Canada's was approximately 2.8%. Higher inflation in Australia may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to consider tightening monetary policy, potentially leading to AUD appreciation against the CAD. (vstar.com)

• Monetary Policy: The RBA has maintained a hawkish stance, keeping the cash rate at historically low levels of around 4.1% as of August 2023. In contrast, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has taken a more hawkish approach, gradually raising its policy rate to 5% in response to inflationary conditions. This divergence in monetary policy creates interest rate differentials that influence the AUD/CAD exchange rate. (vstar.com)

• Commodity Prices: Both Australia and Canada are major commodity exporters. Australia's economy is heavily reliant on exports of minerals and agricultural products, while Canada's exports include oil, metals, and timber. Fluctuations in global commodity prices can significantly impact the AUD/CAD exchange rate. For instance, a rise in oil prices may strengthen the CAD due to Canada's status as a major oil exporter. (vstar.com)

Forecasts and Future Outlook

Analysts have provided various forecasts for the AUD/CAD exchange rate:

• Short-Term Forecasts: In the near term, the AUD/CAD exchange rate is expected to rise to 0.93 within three months, representing a 2.11% increase from the current rate. (exchangerates.org.uk)

• Medium-Term Forecasts: By the end of 2025, the exchange rate is projected to average around 0.9117, with values expected to range between 0.9099 and 0.9136. (midforex.com)

• Long-Term Forecasts: Looking ahead to 2026, the average rate is forecasted at 0.9190, fluctuating between 0.9163 and 0.9217. (midforex.com)

These forecasts suggest a gradual appreciation of the AUD against the CAD over the next year, influenced by factors such as economic performance, monetary policy decisions, and commodity price movements.

Conclusion

The AUD/CAD exchange rate has experienced fluctuations over the past few months, influenced by a combination of technical indicators, economic fundamentals, and external factors such as commodity prices and geopolitical events. While technical analysis indicates a bearish trend in the short term, fundamental factors and forecasts suggest potential appreciation of the AUD against the CAD in the medium to long term. Stakeholders should monitor economic indicators, central bank policies, and global market developments to make informed decisions regarding the AUD/CAD currency pair.