Exchange Rate Calculator

The exchange rate between the Australian Dollar (AUD) and the Brazilian Real (BRL) has experienced notable fluctuations over the past few months. This report provides an analysis of the recent trends, technical indicators, and future projections for the AUD/BRL currency pair.

Recent Exchange Rate Trends

In the first quarter of 2025, the AUD/BRL exchange rate exhibited significant volatility. On January 1, 2025, the rate stood at 3.9035 BRL per AUD. By February 4, 2025, it had declined to 3.6017 BRL, marking the lowest point in this period. The rate then rebounded, reaching a peak of 3.9125 BRL on March 4, 2025. As of March 28, 2025, the exchange rate was 3.6173 BRL per AUD.

Technical Analysis

As of March 21, 2025, technical indicators suggested a bearish outlook for the AUD/BRL pair. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 50.098, indicating a neutral position. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a value of 0.003, suggesting a potential buy signal. However, the Average Directional Index (ADX) was at 19.06, reflecting a weak trend. Moving averages presented a mixed picture:

• Simple Moving Averages (SMA):

  • 5-day SMA at 3.5875 (Sell)
  • 10-day SMA at 3.5855 (Sell)
  • 20-day SMA at 3.5796 (Buy)
  • 50-day SMA at 3.5786 (Buy)
  • 100-day SMA at 3.5974 (Sell)
  • 200-day SMA at 3.6268 (Sell)

• Exponential Moving Averages (EMA):

  • 5-day EMA at 3.5843 (Sell)
  • 10-day EMA at 3.5838 (Sell)
  • 20-day EMA at 3.5811 (Sell)
  • 50-day EMA at 3.5841 (Sell)
  • 100-day EMA at 3.5971 (Sell)
  • 200-day EMA at 3.6190 (Sell)

These indicators collectively pointed towards a bearish sentiment in the market at that time.

Forecasts and Projections

Looking ahead, various forecasts provide insights into the potential movement of the AUD/BRL exchange rate:

• Short-Term Forecasts:

  • For the week of April 17, 2025, the exchange rate was projected to fluctuate between 3.7031 and 3.7179 BRL per AUD, with an average around 3.7124.

• Long-Term Projections:

  • By the end of 2025, the average exchange rate is forecasted to be approximately 3.7328 BRL per AUD, with a range between 3.7141 and 3.7515.
  • By 2030, the average rate is projected to reach 3.9888 BRL per AUD, with a range between 3.7894 and 4.1883.

These projections suggest a gradual appreciation of the AUD against the BRL over the long term.

Factors Influencing the Exchange Rate

Several factors have influenced the AUD/BRL exchange rate in recent months:

• Economic Indicators: Differences in GDP growth, inflation rates, and interest rates between Australia and Brazil can impact the exchange rate.

• Commodity Prices: Australia's economy is heavily reliant on commodity exports. Fluctuations in global commodity prices can affect the AUD's value.

• Political Events: Political stability and policy decisions in both countries can influence investor confidence and currency valuations.

• Global Economic Conditions: Global economic trends, including trade relations and economic growth in major economies, can impact both currencies.

Conclusion

The AUD/BRL exchange rate has experienced notable volatility in the first quarter of 2025, influenced by a combination of economic indicators, commodity prices, political events, and global economic conditions. Technical analysis as of March 21, 2025, indicated a bearish sentiment, while long-term forecasts suggest a gradual appreciation of the AUD against the BRL. Investors and businesses engaged in AUD/BRL transactions should monitor these factors closely to make informed decisions.