Exchange Rate Calculator

The exchange rate between the Australian Dollar (AUD) and the Brazilian Real (BRL) has exhibited notable fluctuations over the past six months, influenced by various economic factors and market dynamics. This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the AUD/BRL exchange rate, examining historical trends, technical indicators, and potential future movements.

Historical Exchange Rate Trends

Over the six-month period from January to June 2025, the AUD/BRL exchange rate has experienced significant volatility:

• Highs and Lows: The highest exchange rate was recorded on March 4, 2025, at 3.9114 BRL per AUD, while the lowest was on April 6, 2025, at 3.4987 BRL per AUD. (exchangerates.org.uk)

• Average Rate: The average exchange rate during this period was approximately 3.6517 BRL per AUD. (exchangerates.org.uk)

• Recent Performance: As of July 1, 2025, the exchange rate stood at 3.5919 BRL per AUD, indicating a slight depreciation from the six-month average. (exchangerates.org.uk)

Technical Analysis

Technical indicators provide insights into the current market sentiment and potential future movements of the AUD/BRL exchange rate:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): The 14-day RSI is at 36.64, suggesting that the currency pair is approaching oversold territory. (investing.com)

• Moving Averages: Both simple and exponential moving averages for periods ranging from 5 to 200 days indicate a "Sell" signal, reflecting a bearish trend. (investing.com)

• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD value of -0.007 supports the bearish outlook, indicating downward momentum. (investing.com)

Factors Influencing the Exchange Rate

Several factors have contributed to the observed fluctuations in the AUD/BRL exchange rate:

• Economic Indicators: Differences in GDP growth rates, inflation, and employment statistics between Australia and Brazil can impact the exchange rate.

• Interest Rates: Decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Central Bank of Brazil regarding interest rates influence investor sentiment and capital flows.

• Commodity Prices: Australia's economy is heavily reliant on commodity exports. Fluctuations in global commodity prices can affect the AUD's value.

• Political Stability: Political events and stability in both countries can lead to changes in investor confidence, impacting the exchange rate.

Forecast and Outlook

Looking ahead, forecasts suggest a gradual appreciation of the AUD against the BRL:

• Short-Term Forecast: For the current week, the exchange rate is projected to average around 3.5854 BRL per AUD, with a range between 3.5495 and 3.6212. (midforex.com)

• Long-Term Forecast: Over the next five years, the exchange rate is expected to average approximately 3.8524 BRL per AUD, indicating a potential strengthening of the AUD. (midforex.com)

Conclusion

The AUD/BRL exchange rate has demonstrated considerable volatility over the past six months, influenced by a complex interplay of economic indicators, interest rate decisions, commodity prices, and political events. Technical analysis currently indicates a bearish trend, but forecasts suggest a potential appreciation of the AUD against the BRL in the medium to long term. Investors and businesses engaged in transactions involving these currencies should closely monitor these factors and consider both technical indicators and fundamental economic developments when making decisions.