Exchange Rate Calculator

The exchange rate between the Australian Dollar (AUD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY) has experienced notable fluctuations over the past several months. This report provides an analysis of the recent trends, technical indicators, and future outlook for the AUD/JPY currency pair.

Recent Exchange Rate Trends

Over the six-month period from September 2024 to March 2025, the AUD/JPY exchange rate exhibited significant volatility. The pair reached a peak of 102.26 JPY per AUD on November 7, 2024, and declined to a low of 92.20 JPY per AUD on March 10, 2025. The average exchange rate during this period was approximately 97.79 JPY per AUD.

Technical Analysis

Moving Averages:

As of March 28, 2025, the AUD/JPY pair was trading below several key moving averages, indicating a bearish trend:

• 5-day Simple Moving Average (SMA): 94.28 (Sell)
• 10-day SMA: 94.52 (Sell)
• 20-day SMA: 94.65 (Sell)
• 50-day SMA: 94.84 (Sell)
• 100-day SMA: 94.79 (Sell)
• 200-day SMA: 94.52 (Sell)

The alignment of these moving averages suggests sustained downward momentum.

Technical Indicators:

Several technical indicators as of March 28, 2025, support the bearish outlook:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): 31.856 (Sell)
• Stochastic Oscillator (STOCH): 23.366 (Sell)
• Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): -0.17 (Sell)
• Average Directional Index (ADX): 48.535 (Sell)
• Commodity Channel Index (CCI): -136.6604 (Sell)

These indicators collectively point to a strong sell signal for the AUD/JPY pair.

Market Sentiment and Influences

The bearish sentiment in the AUD/JPY pair can be attributed to several factors:

• Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy: Expectations of potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan have increased demand for the JPY, contributing to the AUD/JPY decline.

• Global Trade Tensions: Concerns over the economic impact of aggressive tariff policies and potential escalation in the U.S.-China trade war have heightened risk aversion, benefiting the safe-haven JPY.

• Australian Economic Outlook: Anticipations of further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have weakened the AUD, adding to the downward pressure on the AUD/JPY pair.

Future Outlook

Short-Term Forecast:

In the near term, the AUD/JPY pair is expected to continue facing downward pressure. Forecasts for the upcoming days suggest a gradual decline, with the exchange rate potentially reaching 94.413 JPY per AUD by March 21, 2025.

Medium-Term Forecast:

Over the next three months, the AUD/JPY exchange rate is projected to rise to 102.83 JPY per AUD, representing a 9.21% increase from the current rate. This forecast indicates a potential reversal of the current bearish trend in the medium term.

Long-Term Forecast:

Looking further ahead, the AUD/JPY exchange rate is expected to continue its upward trajectory, reaching 104.06 JPY per AUD in six months and maintaining this level over the next year.

Conclusion

The AUD/JPY currency pair has experienced significant volatility in recent months, influenced by monetary policies, global trade tensions, and economic outlooks in both Australia and Japan. While technical indicators currently suggest a bearish trend, medium to long-term forecasts indicate potential appreciation of the AUD against the JPY. Investors should closely monitor economic developments and central bank policies in both countries to make informed decisions regarding the AUD/JPY pair.