Exchange Rate Calculator

The exchange rate between the Australian Dollar (AUD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY) has exhibited notable fluctuations over the past several months. This report provides an analysis of recent trends, technical indicators, and future outlooks for the AUD/JPY currency pair.

Recent Exchange Rate Trends

Over the six-month period from December 2024 to June 2025, the AUD/JPY exchange rate experienced significant volatility. The pair reached a peak of 98.570 JPY per AUD on January 7, 2025, and declined to a low of 86.896 JPY per AUD on April 6, 2025. The average exchange rate during this period was approximately 94.155 JPY per AUD. (exchangerates.org.uk)

Technical Analysis

Moving Averages:

As of June 27, 2025, the AUD/JPY pair was trading near several key moving averages, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish trend:

• 5-day Simple Moving Average (SMA): 94.42 (Buy)
• 10-day SMA: 94.47 (Buy)
• 20-day SMA: 94.52 (Sell)
• 50-day SMA: 94.49 (Sell)
• 100-day SMA: 94.42 (Buy)
• 200-day SMA: 94.32 (Buy)

The alignment of these moving averages suggests a mixed sentiment, with short-term averages indicating a buy signal and longer-term averages showing a sell signal. (investing.com)

Technical Indicators:

Several technical indicators as of June 27, 2025, support a neutral outlook:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): 48.381 (Neutral)
• Stochastic Oscillator (STOCH): 50.716 (Neutral)
• Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): -0.02 (Sell)
• Average Directional Index (ADX): 28.26 (Buy)
• Commodity Channel Index (CCI): -42.0312 (Neutral)

These indicators collectively point to a neutral to slightly bullish sentiment for the AUD/JPY pair. (investing.com)

Market Sentiment and Influences

The current sentiment in the AUD/JPY pair can be attributed to several factors:

• Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy: Expectations of potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan have increased demand for the JPY, contributing to the AUD/JPY decline.

• Global Trade Tensions: Concerns over the economic impact of aggressive tariff policies and potential escalation in the U.S.-China trade war have heightened risk aversion, benefiting the safe-haven JPY.

• Australian Economic Outlook: Anticipations of further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have weakened the AUD, adding to the downward pressure on the AUD/JPY pair. (maybefinance.com)

Future Outlook

Short-Term Forecast:

In the near term, the AUD/JPY pair is expected to continue facing downward pressure. Forecasts for the upcoming days suggest a gradual decline, with the exchange rate potentially reaching 94.3153 JPY per AUD by July 3, 2025. (exchangerates.org.uk)

Medium-Term Forecast:

Over the next three months, the AUD/JPY exchange rate is projected to rise to 91.23 JPY per AUD, representing a 3.45% decrease from the current rate. This forecast indicates a potential reversal of the current bearish trend in the medium term. (exchangerates.org.uk)

Long-Term Forecast:

Looking further ahead, the AUD/JPY exchange rate is expected to continue its upward trajectory, reaching 95 JPY per AUD in one year and maintaining this level over the next year. (exchangerates.org.uk)

Conclusion

The AUD/JPY currency pair has experienced significant volatility in recent months, influenced by monetary policies, global trade tensions, and economic outlooks in both Australia and Japan. While technical indicators currently suggest a neutral to slightly bullish trend, medium to long-term forecasts indicate potential appreciation of the AUD against the JPY. Investors should closely monitor economic developments and central bank policies in both countries to make informed decisions regarding the AUD/JPY pair.